It happened in the VHS vs. Betamax, where the generic won (backed by Sony). DVD vs. DIVX (Circiut City). MP3 vs. RM (Real), WM* (Microsoft) and QT (Apple).
It would seem that the battle is over, based on how the porn industry is acting. Only one title has come out in high-def format, in HD-DVD. That in itself doesn't win the war. But in this article, there is some nuggets that show the end. Specifically, Sony will not allow porn onto the DVDs they produce:
During an interview with AVN earlier this month, Joone (a pseudonym used by Ali Davoudian, an AVN award winning pornographic film director/producer and founder of the company Digital Playground), said that he was basically forced to use HD DVD because no Blu-ray manufacturer would make his discs.The article did mention that other disc manufacturers were willing to produce the format. But that fact remains that Sony will not do it, which puts a false restriction on the use of the format. Are there other content types it will not allow? The marketplace doesn't like those types of restrictions.
I confess that I can't see the porn industry going to high-def any time soon. Nobody wants to see the pimples during their fantasies, but that is what high-def will give them. I guess there might be a market soon for air-brush experts!
In any event, I think HD-DVD will win out.